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          TRENDLines Research  ...  Providing macro-economic charts & guidance for Legislators, Policymakers, Investors & Stakeholders
          long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989 - TRENDLines removes the noise from economic data to reveal the underlying trends

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          covid jul5

          next monthly chart update:  Aug 4th 2021

          see daily updates at www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa 

          Archive of PPL Model's Projected 2020-2022 Covid19 Fatalities

          BC
          Ontario Canada
          UK
          USA
          World
          July 5 2021
          1,7789,80027,020
          128,990
          621,000
          4.4 million
          June 2
          1,8079,44027,490
          128,435
          655,000
          4,560,000
          May 3
          2,257
          8,60025,820
          128,200
          650,000
          4,320,000
          April 1
          1,668
          7,96524,070
          127,460
          584,000
          7,700,000
          March 1
          1,406
          7,27022,840
          127,100
          570,000
          2,900,000
          Feb 3
          1,317
          7,68022,260
          129,500
          520,000
          2,730,000
          Jan 18
          1,250
          7,81022,700
          102,700
          604,000
          8,950,000
          Jan 2 2021
          1,151
          5,56019,000
          139,000
          763,000
          4,400,000
          Dec 16 2020
          -
          4,22015,330
          89,000
          599,000
          3,190,000
          Nov 20
          -
          -13,400
          -396,000
          2,110,000
          Oct 20
          412
          3,54010,800
          46,500295,000
          1,970,000
          Oct 10
          374
          3,5409,840
          44,450289,000
          2,090,000
          Sept 30
          290
          3,03810,160
          44,800270,000
          1,670,000
          Sept 20
          437
          2,9479,895
          43,840266,000
          1,730,000
          Sept 10
          277
          2,9059,440
          42,200245,000
          1,440,000
          Sept 5
          274
          2,909 9,460
          42,120 267,000
          1,410,000
          Aug 30
          216
          2,9299,450
          42,230284,000
          1,380,000
          Aug 25
          217
          2,8689,370
          42,010269,000
          1,450,000
          Aug 20
          205
          2,8629,302
          41,990265,000
          1,490,000
          Aug 15
          204
          2,8519,100
          48,600418,000
          2,100,000
          Aug 10
          207
          2,8529,075
          48,800377,000
          2,450,000
          Aug 5
          205
          2,8549,070
          48,500282,000
          1,990,000
          July 30
          207
          2,8459,050
          48,200308,000
          2,040,000
          July 25
          199
          2,8439,030
          48,100239,000
          1,630,000
          July 20
          215
          2,8509,060
          48,100204,000
          1,500,000
          July 15
          200
          2,8258,940
          46,200180,000
          1,140,000
          July 10
          189 2,8208,930
          46,000175,000
          1,170,000
          July 5
          180 2,8458,910
          46,000173,000
          1,170,000
          June 30
          177 2,8908,840
          45,600161,000
          1,340,000
          June 25
          172 2,9208,860
          44,700141,000
          1,190,000
          June 21st 2020
          Actual Deaths:
          171 2,657 8,481
          42,731 122,468
          472,779
          June 20 forecasts
          for Year 2020

          170
          2,8109,000
          46,800145,000
          1,145,000
          June 16
          170
          2,9409,660
          48,900140,000
          905,000
          June 12
          172
          3,17010,200
          47,400141,000
          852,000
          June 9
          172
          3,5309,430
          49,200134,000
          640,000
          June 6
          191
          2,7709,700
          45,500127,000
          525,000
          June 3
          197
          2,5508,470
          42,500122,000
          471,000
          June 1
          216
          2,5408,370
          42,000122,000
          466,000
          May 30
          225
          2,5307,990
          41,600121,000
          428,000
          May 28
          217
          2,4807,870
          41,100119,000
          420,000
          May 26
          225
          2,3907,590
          41,600119,000
          420,000
          May 24
          224

          7,470

          120,000
          420,000
          May 22
          223

          7,300

          117,000
          409,000
          May 20
          196

          7,040

          111,000
          403,000
          May 18
          193

          7,135

          110,000
          406,000
          May 16
          180

          7,125

          111,000
          396,000
          May 14
          174

          7,025

          109,000
          381,000
          May 12
          189

          6,850

          105,000
          386,000
          May 10
          222

          6,900

          116,000
          393,000
          May 8
          183

          6,860

          119,000
          339,000
          May 6
          202

          6,475

          103,000
          352,000
          May 4
          200

          6,000

          95,000
          386,000
          May 2
          205

          5,900

          117,000
          380,000
          Apr 30 2020
          238

          5,120

          80,000
          380,000
          Apr 28 forecasts
          for June 21st 2020
          176

          3,960

          70,500
          314,000

          TRUMP-VIRUS THRUST USA ECONOMY into TECHNICAL RECESSION in MARCH 2020

          July 5th 2021 - So how did the USA embark on this historic crisis?  Here's a clue:  During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the President stated to the Fox News host:

          "You'll have packed churches all over the country.  It would be a resurrection of biblical proportions.  I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter.  It would be a beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's going to be very hard to start it up again.  We can't lose the advantage we have."

          It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

          But it marked the day everything changed.  And leads one to ask why does the USA have 23% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 56% of the today's global "active" cases & 24% of worldwide body bags?  The answer is founded in its citizenry electing a reality show celebrity as its President.  This business con man's failure to mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.

          Albeit Obama's Homeland Security Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust "playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018.  Dr Dennis Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.  And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr Bright were abruptly reassigned.

          This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go away with warm April sunshine".  After his "miracle" failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light remedies.

          It was soon evident many continued to drink the Kool-Aid (or bleach?).  Prior to flattening their curves, mostly "red States" relaxed physical distancing, stay-at-home policies, masking & contact tracing.

          From the onset it was evident Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign was rooted in politics.  Despite his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama's multiple 5% GDP growth rates.  2020's Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can - hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March.  With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP.

          So the motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear.  As a ratings savvy guy, he knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be announced in late July (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions).  The Q3 GDP announcement was Oct29th - a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd).

          And evidently, he's in huge trouble for failing to contain Covid-19.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in Q2.  And of the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 15 million remain on the rolls.  With no sign of his boasted V-shaped Recovery, Individual-1 tried some desperate manoeuvres ... like forcing schools to re-open ... attempting to postpone the Election ... sabotaging the postal system for an electoral advantage ... and challenging those mail-in ballots and finally ... recruiting nationalist militia to overthrow the Capitol on January 6th.

          The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

          The TRENDLines Recession Indicator was the first macro-economic model to accurately reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real time.  In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity crisis to occur in 2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt.  But that day was pre-empted by a black swan event:  the TrumpVirus - a crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment & mitigation failures - resulting in 561,000 fatalities (thus far).

          Despite interventions by the Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it is probable the  American economy will suffer long-term consequences.  April's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) of 22% was the worst since the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression (see chart below).  Q2GDP plunged 31% (annualized rate), dwarfing the 2008 & 1980 downturns and anything seen in the great Depression.

          Weekly initial unemployment claims reports reveal the Trump Virus caused the economy to shed 75 million jobs.  18 million workers remain on the rolls today.  The TrumpVirus assures business failures will continue thru 2021 as well.  Nominal GDP did not re-attain its pre Great Recession level 'til mid 2011.  It is likely this Recovery will last 'til 2023.  And it may take a generation for the Unemployment Rate to recover to its Natural Rate.

          If due to the TrumpVirus resurgence and/or an Autumn second wave, GDP declines for at least 4 quarters, this event will have escalated to a defined Severe Recession - if avg GDP over the period exceeds -2%.  GDP must exceed -4% for at least 8 quarters for this to be a defined Depression and -8% for four years to be called a Greater Depression.
           
          TRI USA long

          the traditional definitions

          TECHNICAL RECESSION:  Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters
          SEVERE RECESSION:  Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr)
          DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs)
          GREATER DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs)

          RECOVERY PERIOD:  monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak
          EXPANSION PERIOD: 
          monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak

          STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX):  Adjustment to GDP reflecting fiscal policy Deficit/Surplus to reveal growth rate of underlying economy
           
          UPPER CLASS:  family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society
          MIDDLE CLASS:  family income is among the top 10% of society
          WORKING CLASS:  all the rest...

          U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:  Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers  a subset of marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

          real unemployment rates




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           Last modified:  July 5, 2021  ~  (? 1989-2021 TRENDLines Research)


          keywords:  projection prediction forecast indicate guess estimate how many people will die perish in bc british columbia canada canadians usa americans united states globe world worldwide earth result from corona virus covid-19 pandemic flu death toll daily total cumulative fatalities perish victims trendlines freddy hutter CDC IHME model pplm post-peak linearization social physical distancing


          u-c
          thanx

          Sorry, but my Covid fatalities projection is the only macro economic model presently active in 2021.

          My Recession Indicator, Realty Bubbles, Peak Oil & Sea Level models may be updated in Oct 2021

          - so please do not clik on old links on this homepage today

          u/c

          PANDEMIC's WAVE#1 SURGES are 90% DONE!
          FUTURE FATALITIES FORECAST:  400,000 WORLDWIDE
          incl:  USA 7,500 & UK 610 & CANADA 610 incl ONTARIO 540 & BC 22 VICTIMS

          July 5th 2021 - Based on changing mortality rates of the novel coronavirus in recent weeks, today's update of TRENDLines Research's Covid-19 fatalities model projects the ultimate 2020-2022 death count due to all wave#1 surges will be 4.4 million worldwide (present toll 4 million + 400,000 future) incl 621,000 in the USA (613,500 toll + 7,500 future);  128,990 in the UK (128,380 toll + 610 future) & 27,020 in Canada (26,410 toll + 610 future) incl 9,800 in Ontario (9,200 toll + 540 future) & 1,778 in BC (1,756 toll + 22 future).

          The Post-Peak Linearization Model suggested wave#1 was essentially suppressed in the UK & Canada-wide (incl BC & Ontario) after its first surge in mid-2020.  Unfortunately, those early sacrifices proved to be in vain.  Premature relaxation of shelter-in-place, physical distancing, masking, testing & contact tracing in all four jurisdictions gave rise to resurgences upon each attempt at re-opening.  On the contrary, at no time last year did the USA or Global death curves see material suppression.

          We are not witnessing second or third waves typically spawned by seasonal relapse or mutated strains.  The mishandling of Wave#1 by almost all jurisdictions - by faulty policy or soft enforcement - surged cases (and hospitalization & deaths) on each occasion of failed re-openings.  Only the rapid deployment of vaccines is saving politicians from themselves.  It appears those jurisdictions attaining 70% first dose penetrations are permanently bending the curve.

          A pair of risks remain.  Many right-leaning jurisdictions face outbreaks due to their implementing normalization strategies whilst hosting vaccine hesitancy in the 30-50% realm.  And each month the pandemic lingers supports the development opportunity of a variant resistant to present vaccines.

          Current model runs indicate the UK was the first of our monitored jurisdictions to virtually suppress its Covid19 episode (May 2021).  BC should be clear by this September, while Canada-wide, UK & USA will follow in November.  Ontario in December.  Albeit the worldwide first dose level is only 24% today, the model projects global suppression of Covid19 in January 2022.

          See website table for archive of all past projections.  The model's chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at:


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          see weekly text updates at:  www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa

          WORLDWIDE
          Based on mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model warns the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 400,000 Covid19 deaths across the globe before being suppressed in January 2022.  Added to the current toll (4.0 million), the ultimate 2020-2022 fatalities are projected at 4.4 million.  Today's daily-deaths rate (7,900) is down 47% from its January 2021 record high.

          The model suggests the pandemic's first wave is 90% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 112 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x 2.2% case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

          The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths' today:  Brazil (1,565), India, Russia, Colombia, Indonesia, Argentina, South Africa, Peru, USA & Mexico.  For context of Trump's containment failure, America comprises 56% of today's world "active" cases but 15% of total deaths albeit only 4% of global population.

          41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities.

          Worldwide
          mortality rate:  0.05% or 523 deaths/million population

          USA
          The model similarly indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 7,500 Covid deaths across America before being suppressed in November 2021.  Added to the current toll (613,500), the ultimate 2020-2021 fatalities are projected at 621K.  Today's daily-deaths rate (278) is 93% below its February 2021 record high.  The States with the most daily-deaths today are Florida (30), Texas, Missouri, Arizona, California & Pennsylvania.

          The model suggests the USA's first wave is 99% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

          During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the President proposed packing the nation's churches on Easter and return to work the following day.  It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

          It marked the day everything changed.  Just over a year later, the USA has 18% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 56% of the today's global "active" cases & 15% of worldwide body bags.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in 20Q2.  And of the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 15 million remain on the rolls.

          The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April 2020's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

          Long-term care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of Covid19 victims - as high as 73% in some States.  81% of fatalities were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49.

          USA's mortality rate:  0.19% or 1,851 deaths/million (19th worst in world - behind Peru (0.6%), Hungary, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Czechia, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Brazil, Slovakia, Belgium, Colombia, Argentina, Slovenia, Italy, Croatia, Poland, UK, Paraguay & Mexico)

          UK
          The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 610 Covid deaths across the UK before being suppressed in November 2021.  Added to the current toll (128,380), ultimate 2020/2021 fatalities are projected at 128,990.  The UK's wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  There are presently 18 deaths/day.  The high was 1,347/day in January 2021.

          The model suggests the UK's first wave is again essentially suppressed.  The alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 1.1 million UK lives (66 million x 67% x 2.6% case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

          The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 4% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in April) and 8% of today's world "active" cases.  37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.

          UK's mortality rate:  0.19% or 1,931 deaths/million (17th worst in world)

          CANADA
          The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield yet another 610 Covid deaths across Canada before being mostly suppressed in November 2021.  Added to the current toll (26,410), ultimate 2020/2021 fatalities are projected at 27,020.  It reveals Canada's wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  There are presently 21 deaths per day - substantially down from the record highs of 175/day in May 2020 & 173 in January 2021.

          The model suggests Canada's first wave is 98% complete.  The alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 446,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.8% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

          Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there's no surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases.  69% of Covid19 victims resided or worked in long-term facilities.  88% of fatalities were over the age of 69.

          Canada's mortality rate:  0.07% or 710 deaths/million

          ONTARIO
          The
          model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield another 540 Covid deaths across Ontario before being suppressed in December 2021.  Added to the current toll (9,260), ultimate 2020/2021 fatalities are projected at 9,800.  It reveals Ontario's wave#1 was initially suppressed on July 7th 2020 -  when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day.  There are presently 13 deaths/day - down substantially from the record highs of 62/day in May 2020 & 61 in January 2021.

          The model suggests Ontario's first wave is 94% complete.  Note the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

          Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario's credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.

          Ontario's mortality rate:  0.06% or 630 deaths/million

          BC
          The model indicates the present Wave#1 surge will yield another 22 Covid deaths across BC before being suppressed in September 2021.  Added to the current toll (1,756), ultimate 2020-2021 fatalities are projected at 1,778.  It indicates BC's wave#1 was initially suppressed way back on June 20th 2020 - when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day.  There is presently 1 death/day - down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020.

          The model suggests the Province's first wave is 99% complete.  Note the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 40,000 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.2% case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

          BC exhibits among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe.  British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off.  Wise leadership quickly contained the spread, had faulty re-opening strategies, but both jurisdictions are again on paths to normality.

          Credit to BC in being among the first to bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences.  Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total fatalities.

          BC mortality rate:  0.03% or 344 deaths/million

          The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
          These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR's linearization model.  It extrapolates a jurisdiction's mortality rate after the curve's peak - particularly the most recent days & weeks.  The graph's data points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative death toll on the x-axis.  The intersection of their trendline at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths.  As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trendline to the right and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.

          There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities.  This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve's down-slope and assumes no change in gov't guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour.  This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004.  On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region - presented alone or with comparatives.

          The chart, underlying stats & commentary of TRENDLines Research's post-peak linearization model (PPLM) are updated twice weekly at
           

          About TRENDLines Research
          Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;  & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.

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          I'm pleased to tell TRENDLiners this past Summer 85% of visitors were International (120 nations: most from USA, UK, Australia, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Japan, India & Singapore)

          Members & Media with query or comments are welcome to email or skype me (freddyhutter) for chats, phone or video-cam

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